Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 0.123987 0.145629 0.170772 0.202346 0.241223 0.287898 0.348739
2025-09-14 0.095074 0.121010 0.154267 0.200750 0.265182 0.353092 0.485216
2025-09-21 0.073370 0.099725 0.136413 0.192634 0.279249 0.412300 0.641966
2025-09-28 0.053284 0.076184 0.110172 0.166256 0.260559 0.420929 0.734318
2025-10-05 0.044552 0.067144 0.103024 0.167162 0.286047 0.513387 1.029361
2025-10-12 0.038619 0.061180 0.099416 0.173375 0.324743 0.652358 1.530478
2025-10-19 0.033416 0.055348 0.094766 0.176796 0.361347 0.813042 2.254582
2025-10-26 0.029263 0.050501 0.090819 0.180792 0.402956 1.019522 3.396888
2025-11-02 0.025088 0.044792 0.083953 0.176718 0.425285 1.198860 4.780552
2025-11-09 0.021282 0.039082 0.075841 0.167457 0.431079 1.340823 6.357165
2025-11-16 0.018924 0.035828 0.072228 0.168220 0.467779 1.635394 9.650837
2025-11-23 0.016922 0.032946 0.068816 0.168584 0.505309 1.988336 14.880455
2025-11-30 0.015243 0.030556 0.066263 0.171413 0.558244 2.517755 25.363378
2025-12-07 0.013794 0.028418 0.063865 0.174151 0.616019 3.202802 45.331857
2025-12-14 0.012277 0.025862 0.059848 0.170547 0.647552 3.823636 75.670994
2025-12-21 0.010327 0.021979 0.051558 0.149997 0.589136 3.703724 87.527049
2025-12-28 0.009506 0.020701 0.050073 0.152707 0.648794 4.740591 178.236236
2026-01-04 0.008924 0.019915 0.049795 0.159931 0.742503 6.486048 461.621521
2026-01-11 0.008320 0.018970 0.048853 0.164437 0.829104 8.630695 1298.309765
2026-01-18 0.007786 0.018125 0.048029 0.169289 0.927744 11.641695 4701.405902
2026-01-25 0.007136 0.016863 0.045634 0.166482 0.972343 14.176402 15656.870132
2026-02-01 0.006455 0.015422 0.042383 0.158599 0.971673 15.926910 47328.181634
2026-02-08 0.006034 0.014648 0.041167 0.159926 1.052761 20.733937 557479.244320